Trump could stifle US renewable energy

Instead of fighting climate change, Donald Trump wants to prioritize fossil fuels and eliminate wind power when he returns to the White House.

Donald Trump's election as US President sent clean energy stocks plummeting in the US on November 6. The MAC Global Solar Energy index, which tracks solar companies, fell 10% at one point. Shares of NextEra Energy, the leading US renewable energy developer, fell 6.2%.

According to proposals made during the election campaign, Trump would shift the country's energy policy, focusing on oil and gas production instead of fighting climate change.

Still, his victory is unlikely to significantly slow the renewable energy boom in the US. "I don't think Trump can slow down the transition. It's already well underway," said Ed Hirs, an energy researcher at the University of Houston.

Wind turbines in Palm Springs, California (USA) in 2021. Photo: Reuters

Wind and solar power are increasingly contributing to the grid, fueled by government tax incentives, state mandates and technological advances, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The cost of clean energy is falling as a result.

In 2022, US President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), providing billions of dollars in subsidies for wind and solar power over the next decade. This is part of the US effort to decarbonize the electricity sector by 2035 to combat climate change.

Before the election, Trump criticized the IRA as too expensive and vowed to recoup all unused funding from the program, which could put a damper on the clean energy boom in the United States.

But observers say the move is unlikely to materialize. Repealing the IRA would require congressional approval, including from states that benefit from IRA-related investments, such as solar panel plants, wind farms and other projects.

“The jobs and economic benefits from this are huge, even in traditionally Republican states. It’s hard for the new administration to say, ‘We don’t like this,’ and repeal the IRA,” said Carl Fleming, a White House adviser on renewable energy policy. Many of Trump’s allies are also benefiting from the IRA, through investments in clean energy technology.

Still, Fleming said Trump could slow the pace of clean energy development in the US , by preventing government agencies from funding or lending projects in IRAs, or by restricting offshore wind turbine leasing. “But I think this is a small part of the renewable energy market. It’s not going to be a big shock,” he said.

Trump is also expected to prioritize public land for fossil fuel extraction. Currently, most onshore wind and solar projects are on private land. Trump has vowed to end wind power “on day one” in office. He has argued that wind turbines are too expensive and kill whales and birds.

However, Fleming said that even if Trump does not win the election, the US offshore wind industry will still have difficulty achieving the Biden administration's target of 30 GW of installed capacity by 2030. "The industry still faces many challenges in its development. But our mission is to continue to strive to achieve that ambition and demonstrate that the US is serious about the clean energy transition," said Liz Klein, director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management.